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Interactive election map


The New York Times provides an interactive map that lets you see which states are, according to the Times, leaning one way or another. If you click the Electoral Votes button, you get a nifty little animation, morphing from the geographical map to an area-proportional-to-votes diagram. You can also look at other maps, providing information about Senate and House races and previous elections and so on. And if you click the "Presidential Calculator" link, you can interactively choose which states go to Bush and which go to Kerry, and it'll calculate electoral votes for you.

It was last updated yesterday, October 9, after the second presidential debate, though I have no idea whether its poll numbers reflect any changes of opinion wrought by that debate. And last week's Unfutz electoral college survey (which may not have included many polls from after the first debate) showed significantly stronger support for Bush than this map does. But the map is still pretty nifty, regardless of how accurate its numbers are for electoral-vote predictions.

Requires Flash, I think.


I spent a lot of my morning looking over various polling maps of electoral college votes, and they're kind of freaking me out. That, in combination with a long conversation about politics that I had with Matt last night, has basically put the fear of god in to me, at least as far as this election is concerned. I've signed up with the East Bay for Kerry volunteers and I'm spending a couple of hours tonight making phone calls to swing voters in Nevada.

Matt's take on it, the specific part of it that motivated me to go out and do this kind of crap, is that the Republicans are generally very organized in terms of voter mobilization and turnout, so there's basically a set number of votes that they know they're going to get. Probably somewhere around 53 million votes. So that's a fixed number, but depending on how active and effective the Democrats are, that 53 million can end up being anywhere from 46 to 53 percent of the popular vote.

Which means that this election is going to be won or lost on the number of voters the Democrats can mobilize in the next couple of weeks. So I've gone and signed up for phone-bank work over the next few weeks, calling people in New Mexico and Ohio and Nevada. And not to be too pushy about this, but I seriously urge everyone else who wants Bush out of office to do the same thing. I didn't believe that it was really close enough that this kind of thing could make a difference, but those stupid electoral college maps have me convinced.

For those interested, I've posted my latest (10/11) survey of 56 Electoral College tracking / prediction / projection / forecast sites HERE.

Executive summary: Although Bush still leads according to a majority of sites, Kerry has made substantial headway in re-gaining ground he lost to Bush in the last month, reducing a 50 point gap to a 15 - 18 point Bush advantage. Currently Bush has 262 to 268 electoral votes, while Kerry has 247 to 250.