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Dicewars vs US electoral map


I think I'm not really entirely awake today.

I was just looking at the electoral map at the top right of fivethirtyeight, and thought to myself: Hmm, it looks like blue is solidly established in the northeast; on their next turn, they should attack West Virginia from Pennsylvania, and then move into Kentucky. . . .

And then realized that the US election is not in fact a game of Dicewars.


With the big contiguous Red territory cutting Blue into four distinct regions, Blue isn't getting the most out of their dice income. The 50-50 shot at taking Nebraska from Iowa would add three, and if that worked, the same odds on Arizona from California would add another 5. I only count 21 regions in the blue territory, so maybe add a third attack (maybe Indiana -> Kentucky?) and call it a turn.

(er, *Illinois* -> KY. Indiana was just wishful thinking.)

It's not?????

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