5 February 2008, 6:57 AM
So, today some one thousand six hundred and eighty-one delegates to the Democratic National Convention will be chosen, along with their pledges to vote for (presumably) either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton. The first candidate to 2,205 wins (including superdelegates); the candidates have already picked up around two hundred each. I predict that the winner (vaddevah dat means) on Tuesday will get something like a thousand delegates, thus propelling her to a nice lead, and requiring the loser, with a stinking 700, to take nearly two-thirds of the remainder to catch up over the Spring. Or vice versa. Not insurmountable, but let’s try to figure it in baseball terms.
Call the 4,410 total delagates and superdelegates more or less equivalent to the 162 games. Each delegate, then, is more or less twenty-seven and two ninths games. After today, we’ll be just about 67 games into the season. The middle of June. If I’m right, and the Senator from New York has more or less 1,200 delegates by the end of the day, let’s call that record 44-23, with Senator from Illinois being, say, 32-35. I’m not saying he would be out of it, but that’s a twelve game lead.
Of course, unlike in baseball, from here on in it’s a two-team race; every win for Chicago a loss for New York and vice-versa. And this is all predicated on my prediction, not to mention my arithmetic. And it is only over, as Yogi Berra said, when it is over. But as with baseball, it is unlikely that the team that’s winning in the middle of June will suddenly reveal themselves to be worse than the team that has been losing; what is likely to happen today is that we either find out that Barack Obama really is better at this campaign stuff than Hillary Clinton, or the other way around. Whichever it is, I don’t really think it’ll change much between here and Texas.
Tolerabimus quod tolerare debemus,