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Not Gonna Happen

Rick Santorum is not going to be the Republican nominee this year.

Now, I don’t really have any objection to people writing notes analysing the delegate math, but everyone should keep in mind that it’s not going to happen.

Look, here’s the thing. There are two possibilities: either Rick Santorum drops out at some point, or he doesn’t. If he does drop out, then from that point on, Willard “Mitte” Romney will get ninety percent of the delegates, and will easily get to 1,200. Seriously, there isn’t going to be a problem, as long as Mr. Santorum withdraws. So the other possibility is that Rick Santorum doesn’t withdraw.

Now, even then, the likelihood is that Mr. Romney will have enough delegates for a first-ballot win. If it’s close, if he has 1,000 or so, some uncommitted delegates will be found to end the thing, because everyone will want it. Or, of course, Mr. Santorum will (as Secretary Clinton did) call for Mr. Romney’s nomination by acclimation, and it will be acclaimed, and no-one will ever need to count the delegates, because for everything you are reading now about delegate math, remember they didn’t bother counting them four years ago.

If, on the other hand, Mr. Romney and Mr. Santorum do wind up somehow with around 950 delegates each, if Mr. Santorum does much better than he has done so far and Mr. Romney much worse, there is no way on this Earth that the resulting deadlocked convention would result in Mr. Santorum’s nomination. Remember, in this case, nine hundred and fifty delegates will have been chosen specifically to prefer Mr. Romney over Mr. Santorum. And vice versa, of course. But is it possible to imagine that these roughly equal groups of delegates will be persuaded to change over to the person their candidate has just beaten?

No. It is just about possible to imagine a deadlocked convention, and it’s just about possible for a deadlocked convention to result in nominating someone who hasn’t been on the various ballots. I mean, that isn’t going to happen—Jeb Bush and Mike Huckabee and Chris Christie are none of them going to be the Republican nominee this year. But Rick Santorum really, really, really isn’t. I promise.

Tolerabimus quod tolerare debemus,