I had been wondering what to title my inevitable post about elections in Iraq, and I think Nathan Newman solved it by giving Two Cheers. That should properly be two cheers and a sigh of relief, so let’s all join in: Hip-hip—Hooray! Hip-hip—Hooray! ...whew.
Now, I would like to point out that it is overstating the case to call the election a success. NPR this morning is reporting that Boycott Efforts [are] Successful in Many Sunni Areas, with the turnout in al-Anbar province estimated at 7%, including the Kurdish area. I have no idea if this is remotely accurate, but then nobody has any way of knowing if any of it is remotely accurate. Reporting the numbers of ballots cast, much less for whom, is at the discretion of local officials. Still, anecdotal evidence appears to support both very high turnout for Kurds and Shiites and very low turnouts for Sunnis.
And the point of the election, in addition of course to the simple joy of casting a ballot, was to create a transitional government with national legitimacy, and more important to create through that transitional government a constitutional which nearly all Iraqis consider legitimate, just and authoritative. If, in fact, 30% of the people identify themselves as denying the authority of that government and that constitution, there will not be democracy. If most Sunnis don’t recognize the election, the government or the constitution, there is civil war. And there is no reason to believe today, any more than yesterday, that they will.
Furthermore, it isn’t clear to me that the Ayatullah Sistani (and other like-minded leaders) are so much pro-democracy as correctly recognizing that this election was bound to further their political goals. This is true for Kurds as well, of course. That is, of the three major factions, the two who had the most to gain from elections supported elections, and the one who had the most to lose boycotted. This may reflect attitudes toward elections, or just use of the most convenient tool. I don’t know whether the Ayatullah will continue to support elections when the outcome is less certain to further his goals, although in fairness he not only supported this election but the secret ballot, to the point of reminding husbands not to tell their wives who to vote for. So there is substantial reason to hope, particularly as one election tends to lead to another.
Oh, and while looking for the foggy lining to the sunbeam, I’ll take the liberty of pointing out that of the 8 million or so who voted, most did so in perfect safety. Yes, there was violence, and there were parts of the country where intimidation campaigns coincided with bravery in ballot-casting, but most of the ballots were cast in places where (under the influence of the Ayutullah Sistani) the community was united in support. People who took their life into their purple-stained hands were the exception, not the rule. Thinking about it, that’s the good news, isn’t it?
Thank you,
-Vardibidian.