[The following was written on Tuesday, January 20, while the news was fresh]
Well, and Sen. Kerry won Iowa, with Sen. Edwards second, Dr. Dean a distant third, and Rep. Gephardt nowhere. Rep. Gephardt has withdrawn his name from consideration; I am disappointed by his inability to mount a good campaign, but if he can’t win Iowa, he can’t win enough electoral votes, so it’s better to find that out now.
The bigger surprise is that Dr. Dean could only manage to get 18% of the votes. I expect that many of those famous first-time voters will still be first-time voters in four years, or in forty. Feh. As much as I had been saying that nobody really knew whether these first-time voters were different and we would only count their votes if they showed up, I had, in my heart of hearts, really been hoping. Not that my disappointment is in the decreased chance of a nomination for Dr. Dean, but I am still hoping for something to bring back the non-voters.
By the way, Your Humble Blogger is all out of predictions. I had stated outright that Sen. Kerry was through; I was wrong. I had opined that the only question was whether Rep. Gephardt’s would survive Iowa or whether Dr. Dean would edge him. I talked about Dr. Dean as the nominee presumptive, and said that the only thing that could beat him was his own self-destruction. It turns out that he is, in fact, vulnerable to negative campaigns; it’s better to find that out now, too. He could still come back and take the nomination of course (winning New Hampshire, and then Arizona and New Mexico while coming in close third in S.C., etc.), but he is no longer a shoo-in.
Sen. Edwards had the good fortune of being able to stay above the fray, I suppose. He didn’t need to level attacks at other candidates as he was behind a herd of stalking horses; he didn’t get attacked because he was so far behind them. I don’t have any sense of whether he will succeed in the long campaign, but it’s a lot more possible than it looked last week. I like him; I think he’d be a good president, and I think he just might win enough electoral votes. His inexperience makes me uneasy, and I’m vaguely dissatisfied with his choices in the campaign, but as people have been saying, politics isn’t about what you want, it’s about what you can get. If Sen. Edwards is nominated, I expect a close election.
Sen. Kerry ... well ... congratulations. If you can win Iowa, perhaps you can win the country. I like him less than I ever did, and I never liked him much, but I am surprised and impressed. And it’s not a day to criticize Sen. Kerry. So. Congratulations.
Finally, this looks bad for the old labor machine, and therefore for the political power of organized labor. Rep. Gephardt was labor’s friend for years, and it did him no good. Dr. Dean was endorsed by SIEU, the up-and-comer, New Labor in America, and it did him no good. In fact, labor’s candidates together couldn’t take a third of the caucus. The Senators owe nothing to Labor for yesterdays win.
Redintegro Iraq,
-Vardibidian.