You may be aware, Gentle Reader, that they are holding caucuses in Iowa tomorrow. Now, whether you believe with Andrew Cline that the Iowa caucus is completely meaningless or whether you believe with Your Humble Blogger that the Iowa caucus is completely meaningless, one thing’s for sure: the Iowa caucus is completely meaningless. But here’s where you want to be careful: just because the caucus is utterly without meaning, does not mean that meaning will not be derived from them. And most importantly, we can all enjoy the entertainment value of having the entire country pretend that they care what a bunch of Iowans think about the candidates. So, in that spirit, here are a couple of things I would like you to remember, Gentle Reader, as you read about What Happened in Iowa.
First, there will probably be room in the national consciousness for two or maybe three stories. Probably one of those will be Who Won on the Republican side; most reports will exaggerate the difference between first and second place. Another will almost certainly be Who Didn’t Do As Well As We Thought; most reports will hugely exaggerate the difference between third and fourth, or even third and fifth, or even second and fifth. When reading or listening to these reports, keep in mind that this was a handful of Iowans who have time and patience, and that they do not represent America, or any subset of America other than Iowa Caucus Voters.
There’s an interesting number that gets tossed around about how 40% or so of the caucusing folk in the last cycle were first-time participants, and how they are expecting some similar number this year, or perhaps even more. I’m curious about how many of those people who caucused for the first time in 2004 will be back; I suspect that caucusing is a one-time deal for many people. A lot of work, not much fun. I mean, YHB would enjoy it, but that’s different.
Someone will mention that neither Ronald Reagan nor Bill Clinton won the Iowa Caucus. This is true. On the other hand, the last three cycles, all the winners of the Iowa Caucus went on to the nomination. On the other other hand, those three cycles include two incumbent re-elections and a sitting Vice-President. On the other other hand, the most recent contested Iowa Caucus appears to have had a tremendous effect on the primary campaign, causing the prediction of the Meyer Model to be wrong (it still has a 10-for-12 record, which ain’t bad, but I remain skeptical).
Most important to keep in mind is this: the Story about What Happened is far more important than what actually happens. That story is partially decided by the press (vaddevah dat means), but not entirely. Getting or not getting a handful of supporters will not determine entirely whether Barack Obama is a good campaigner, or whether Mitt Romney can’t close a deal, or whether The People Want Moderates. But if people do not want to believe that Barack Obama “has Elvis” then they will not believe it, and the press will drop that story as having no resonance. Still, they have (as an aggregate) a tremendous amount of power in shaping that story.
What I’ll be mulling over whilst listening to the Story about What Happened is how different the results could have been and allowed the same story to be told. If the Story is (as I predict it will be) that Sen. Clinton is no longer inevitable, that story could be told if she loses by five points—or if she wins by five points. The Story of Mayor Giuliani being Through could be told if he is sixth or third, or even second.
Tolerabimus quod tolerare debemus,
-Vardibidian.
I think there will also be variations in how meaningful Iowa is seen depending on what happens. I mean, if Obama wins because he turns out a zillion non-Iowan students who never caucused before, that could be reported as a sign of his charisma and terrific organization, or it could be reported as meaning that the caucus results aren’t meaningful because it’s not a “real” caucus result since it wasn’t decided by True Iowans from America’s Bread Basket (or whatever).
On the other hand, even if the conventional wisdom becomes that They Don’t Mean Anything, they’re still going to be reported over and over again, since there are quite a few news cycles before New Hampshire.
I’m pulling for the story on the Dem side being “anyone could still take it” (which adds drama, after all) rather than Edwards being out (assuming he comes in a respectable third).
I know. I’m on the edge of my seat, too!
peace
Matt
I’m looking for the story to be “Apparently a relative political newcomer named John Edwards has decided to enter the race for the Democrat nomination, shocking the presidential candidates who had been campaigning hard in Iowa for the past 12 months. In a sign of the disorganization of the Democrat party, Edwards somehow came in technically ahead of the charismatic Barack Hussein Obama and Mrs. Hillary Clinton. What this means for the race is anyone’s guess — will Edwards decide to stay in the race? Will he try to raise money other than the huge fortune that he made on contingency fees from lawsuits? Will he try to buy advertising time on television? Spokespeople for Obama and Clinton have said that they are looking forward to the actual primaries in New Hampshire and elsewhere across this great country.” Followed by a continued blackout of Edwards’ actual campaign events, speeches, and positions.
I have to nearly agree with Matt Yglesias who says that “it seems clear that the press is determined to spin absolutely anything as a win for McCain and anything other than third place as a win for Obama.”
I would have to say that it’s very difficult to imagine how Edwards won! is the story. The story will be that Hillary Clinton lost, unless she wins, in which case it will be that Hillary Clinton nearly lost.
Thanks,
-V.
Yeah, I looked at the WaPo this morning, and they have an article the headline of which was something like “Obama Landslide, Hillary Concedes (in Iowa).” The article mentions in passing that Edwards was in second place, neck and neck with The Clinton, actually, but they don’t put it that way. On the third page, or so, it talks about Edwards some more.
Makes one fume with righteous fuming, so it does.
peace
Matt