Iraqi survey
Salam Pax points to a fascinating survey (PDF file) done by Oxford Research International for "the BBC and other broadcasters." A BBC article gives some background and summarizes some of the results, but on looking at the detailed numbers, I find it hard to draw many strong conclusions.
About 70% of the 2500 respondents (drawn from all over Iraq) said things are "Quite good" or "Very good" in their lives these days, so that's good. And about 80% said things are either about the same or better than they were before the war. (On the other hand, to look at it the other way around, nearly half said things are either about the same or worse. I suppose a lot depends on whether the 25% who said "about the same" meant "equally good" or "equally bad.")
Nearly 50% said the invasion of Iraq was the right things to do, but nearly 40% said it was the wrong thing to do. (There are an awful lot of "difficult to say" answers throughout the survey.) And although 40% of respondents said the coalition forces liberated Iraq, another 40% said they humiliated Iraq.
About half said (I'm paraphrasing) they had enough clean water, about half said they didn't. Though only about 15% said the clean water situation was worse than before the war.
About 85% of respondents put "Regaining public security in the country" as one of their top three priorities for the next 12 months. Next was rebuilding infrastructure (55%). Holding elections, ensuring that most people can make a decent living, and reviving the economy all came in around 30%.
In a series of questions about "Who should take care of" various issues (public security, increasing oil production, etc), "Iraqi government" and "Iraqi people" are consistently the top two answers, usually adding up to 50%-60% of responses, with usually about 20% of responses being "Not sure/no answer."
About 20% felt that the United Arab Emirates should be the model for Iraq in the coming years, but 25% said Iraq needs no model. No other country came close.
But despite all the stuff about the Iraqi government and people being the ones who should take care of various things, 35% of respondents said that the US should "play a role in the rebuilding of Iraq." Another 35% said Japan should do so.
About 10% listed Ahmed Chalabi as the one Iraqi national leader who they don't trust at all.
Over 50% said they agreed, strongly or somewhat, with the idea that what Iraq needs right now is love, sweet love a government made up mainly of religious leaders. But over 40% disagreed with that idea. And over 85% said the country needed an Iraqi democracy. (Democracy, 15% of respondents said, guarantees freedom.) And only 10% said that Iraq needs a mostly religious-leaders government a year from now.
Nearly 80% wanted Iraq to be unified, with a central government in Baghdad; but 15% (including, says the BBC article, 70% of Kurds) want it to be "a group of regional states"—a federal system.
Nearly 20% said they would never vote; over 75% said they would never join a political party or action group; 70% said they would never participate in demonstrations; over 80% said they would never use violence or force even if it became necessary.
On the other hand, over 17% found other people's attacks on coalition forces acceptable. (If 17% doesn't sound like much, remember that it's more than 1 in 6.)
Just over 50% oppose the presence of coalition forces in Iraq; just under 40% support that presence. Over 75% have never had a personal encounter with coalition soldiers.
About 15% said coalition forces should leave now. Over 35% said they should remain until an Iraqi government is in place.
But there was one thing that almost everyone agreed on: over 90% of respondents said that creating job opportunities for the unemployed would be "very effective" in improving security.
I don't know what it adds up to, other than a reminder that things are never monolithic. It sounds like there's a lot of disagreement over what would be best. Still, I'm glad to see someone actually asking Iraqis what they think.
